Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Arizone Still in Mild Recession

The economy in Arizona continues to deteriorate. According to an article in AZ Central, the Arizona Business Conditions Index fell to 46.7 in June from 48.3 in May. An index value below 50 indicates contraction, a value above 50 expansion. The index has remained below 50 for 7 months.

Arizona used to be one of our favorite markets, since it's in the sun belt and hence very popular among Baby Boomers for retirement. The economy in AZ used to be one of the strongest in the nation, together with Nevada. But with the housing decline, the economy in AZ took a fairly steep dive starting middle/end of last year. Unlike Las Vegas, the major markets in AZ do not have strong drivers which guarantee job growth short term. Long term I remain bullish about AZ, as the majority of the Baby Boomers hit retirement age over the next few years, but short term I believe this market has some more issues to resolve.

Happy Investing!
Robert